Commissioner Picks: S2 Week #1

Matt Sovine

5 days ago

5 min read

Updated: 2 days ago

GRIDIRON DYNASTY: WEEK 1 PREVIEW

Season two is here, and the league already has blood in the water before a single Sunday snap. A.J. Brown's big Patriots debut produced 26 yards. Drake Maye threw three picks and took three sacks before most of you finished your coffee. And somewhere in Seattle, a Super Bowl champion tight end caught two passes for thirteen yards like he'd never heard of fantasy football.

Week 1 projections said this would be a tight, competitive slate. Week 1 reality already has notes.

Five matchups, one commish making picks he'll have to answer for later. Let's get into it.

Burrows Churros (136.94) vs. Ceedee's TD's (135.33)

A buck-sixty-one separates these two, so let's not pretend this projection means anything. At quarterback, Joe Burrow's projected for 24.91 against Baker Mayfield's 22.45 — a gap that exists on paper the same way Baker's playoff hopes exist most years. Burrows Churros' receiver corps does the real damage: Puka Nacua's 21.36 is the single biggest number on the board, and DeVonta Smith quietly matches Nico Collins stride for stride without anyone talking about it, which is basically Smith's entire career.

Ceedee's TD's isn't just showing up, though — they brought CeeDee Lamb (16.61) and Chris Olave duking it out at the top of two different depth charts, plus the backfield combo of James Cook and Kenneth Walker III, both projected within a rounding error of each other. Derrick Henry rounds out the RB room at 15.41, giving them a real three-headed ground game to lean on.

Where this one actually gets decided is the afterthought positions — Oronde Gadsden II's meager 4.91 at tight end for Burrows Churros is the softest number either team is rolling with, while Ceedee's TD's countered with a full-value Michael Mayer at 8.32.

Commish pick: Burrows Churros

3rd and Juan (137.25) vs. Enchanted to Beat You (151.92)

Fifteen points separate these two, and Enchanted to Beat You didn't even need the weekend to start building that lead — Jaxon Smith-Njigba already banked it Thursday night, going 8-for-11 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown (including a 40-plus-yard catch-and-score) in a 13-10 win.

That's 27.70 points already sitting in the bank before most of the league had even set their lineups. 3rd nd Juan's best receiver, Rashee Rice, hasn't even kicked off yet.

At quarterback, it's Brock Purdy's 21.16 against Jalen Hurts' 24.80 — advantage Hurts, and it's not close. The backfield battle actually favors 3rd nd Juan, with Jahmyr Gibbs (22.41) comfortably outprojecting Bijan Robinson (20.32), but that edge gets swallowed whole by the receiver gap: George Pickens' 16.03 outproduces both of 3rd nd Juan's outside options, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is quietly projected as the week's biggest boom-or-bust name at 9.82.

Tight end goes to 3rd nd Juan on paper — Trey McBride's 14.58 dwarfs Harold Fannin Jr.'s 10.74 — but "on paper" isn't doing much for a team that's already down two touchdowns' worth of production before Sunday's slate even starts.

Commish pick: Enchanted to Beat You

4th and Forever (133.20) vs. Joe Buck Yourself (129.16)

The headliner here already happened, and it wasn't pretty. A.J. Brown — the Patriots' big offseason trade acquisition, a first-round pick's worth of hype — went out Thursday night and managed 3 catches for 26 yards in a 10-13 loss to Seattle. Five-point-six.

That's the return on investment 4th and Forever is banking so far, and it's already baked into their 133.20 with nothing left to do about it.

Elsewhere it's a lot closer to fair. Jared Goff's 21.71 actually edges Josh Allen's 20.71 this week — the kind of thing that happens when your quarterback plays the Saints instead of going on the road to Houston. Jonathan Taylor (19.07) comfortably outpaces Cam Skattebo (15.67), and De'Von Achane's spike-week potential (16.48) gives 4th and Forever a real ceiling play Joe Buck Yourself can't match with Quinshon Judkins (10.98).

Where Joe Buck Yourself claws it back is depth — Malik Nabers (15.85, though questionable), Garrett Wilson (15.08), and Josh Downs (12.76) give them three usable bodies at receiver, while 4th and Forever leans hard on Justin Jefferson (17.42) to cover for a wounded Brown. Tight end goes to Joe Buck Yourself too, with Tyler Warren's 14.16 topping both Colston Loveland and Mark Andrews.

New England's defense didn't help either — same Thursday game, same final score, 13 points and 285 yards allowed.

Commish pick: 4th and Forever

Baisdens Bungals (140.36) vs. My Commish Sucks (118.75)

A 21-point gap on paper, and the actual football played so far isn't helping close it. AJ Barner — hyped all offseason as a breakout candidate coming off a Super Bowl run — already took the field Thursday and managed 2 catches for 13 yards in Seattle's 13-10 win. Three-point-three. That's the return My Commish Sucks is stuck with at tight end, while Baisdens Bungals still has Travis Kelce (9.73) sitting on the bench as upside.

Everywhere else, it's Baisdens Bungals just piling on. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 20.59 and Caleb Williams' 20.29 lead a genuinely loaded lineup, and Christian McCaffrey's 19.90 dwarfs anything My Commish Sucks can counter with at running back. Tee Higgins (16.37) and DK Metcalf (11.96) round out a receiver room without a real weak link.

My Commish Sucks does have one legitimate trump card: Lamar Jackson's 21.75 is the highest single projection in the matchup. Problem is, one great quarterback number doesn't offset getting boat-raced at tight end, running back depth, and a Thursday night dud before Sunday's slate even starts.

Commish pick: Baisdens Bungals

Vigilante Blitz (132.76) vs. Better Business Burrow (134.30)

Drake Maye already turned in his numbers Thursday, and it's rough reading: 23-of-33 for just 178 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, and 3 sacks taken in a 10-13 loss to Seattle. That's 13.32 points from a quarterback slot that's supposed to be a strength — Matthew Stafford is projected for 21.35 on the other side, and he hasn't even played yet.

Vigilante Blitz claws back ground elsewhere: Ja'Marr Chase's 20.70 is comfortably the best receiver number in the matchup, and Omarion Hampton (16.20) edges Saquon Barkley (16.11) in a genuine RB1-on-RB1 fight. Zay Flowers adds another 15.89 despite a questionable tag.

Better Business Burrow counters by simply not having a bad position — Javonte Williams (17.91) outproduces both Vigilante Blitz backs, Drake London (15.64) and Ladd McConkey (13.44) give Stafford two more real options, and Sam LaPorta's 14.03 clears Kyle Pitts by a wide margin at tight end.

Commish pick: Better Business Burrow